War in Europe. Why?

 

On Linkedin a polemic is ongoing between those who support Ukraine and those who understand the reasoning behind the special military operations of the Russians. I also expressed my views on this complex war without trying to be biased. This means it is my duty to read and collect as much information about the conflict that I can and use an open mind to understand both sides. It is called seeing the context and not to be judgemental. One anecdote; while Dr. Maersheimer, a professor of  International Relation at the University of Chicago researched the causality and consequences for the Ukrainian – Russian conflict, but people on Linkedin disregard it, refuse to read his scientific take on the events. The European Union posts about the necessity to arm Ukraine as if that was the way they would win the war. Zelensky disregards scientific and humanitarian suffering which proves that he can’t win but exacerbates the dire consequences for his country and its citizens. Those who read my columns, know that I am writing a lot about information theory and that human made systems can only keep functioning if ‘all relevant’ or a maximum quantity and quality of information is used. From this synthesis we then can conclude that this armed conflict won’t be ending soon, despite that the information of an unwinnable battle, persists. Let’s read what Sun Tzu wrote about such situations in his book ‘Art of War’ which is mandatory reading for the Russian army. ‘Weapons are ominous tools to be used when there is no alternative’ or ‘Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in peril’

The threat to sustainable and balanced cooperation and collaboration is human bias i.e. a false perception of reality. I will list some of the well know ones:

What is Wilful Ignorance? The state and practise of ignoring any sensory input that appears to contradict one’s inner model of reality. The practise can entail completely disregarding established facts, evidence and or reasonable opinions, if they fail to meet one’s expectations.

What is Confirmation Bias? The tendency for people to only seek out information that confirm to their pre-existing view points and subsequently ignore information that goes against them.

What is Cognitive Dissonance? A distressing mental state that people feel when they find themselves doing things that don’t fit with what they know or having opinions that don’t fit with other opinions that they hold. The sane person constantly analyses the world of reality and then changes what’s inside his or her head to fit the facts. That’s an awful lot of trouble for most people. Besides, how many people want to constantly change their opinions to fit the facts?

It is a lot easier to change the facts to fit one’s opinions. Other people make up their minds and they find the facts to verify their opinions. Or even more commonly, they accept the opinion of the nearest expert and then don’t have to bother about the facts at all.